Disclaimer: All of the opinions on this blog are my own (and if you ask my wife, some of my opinions are incorrect). I do not have the ability to predict the future and my suggestions or recommendations are in no means a guarantee. I have no control over the markets or the world and I am just sharing my views on the topic at hand. Please make sure to do your own research and make your own choices. If I help you make a bunch of money, I ask that you pay it forward to someone else (or send me a bottle of nice bourbon).
The first ICO offering I participated in was the launch of Electroneum (ETN). If you were a part of the launch or even around the cryptocurrency space, you will know that it was a hot mess of a launch. Let me explain.
There was a ton of excitement over the launch due to an aggressive marketing campaign and way the coin was poised to be used on mobile devices.
The idea is interesting in theory.
Turn cryptocurrency into something everyone with a phone is able to mine and use. Take the extremely complex and make it usable to the masses (please note that I understand you don’t actually “mine” on mobile devices for Electroneum). It could ride the wave of excitement created by Bitcoin, Ripple, etc and would be quickly adopted across the world.
The launch wasn’t reassuring.
It was like throwing a party with cake and telling everyone you forgot the cake and you need to consult a bunch of people on how to make it. And then you have to wait for your aunt Nancy’s birthday to eat it.
Electroneum was poised to launch and they spotted some major security concerns. So they postponed the launch until HackerOne could complete a security audit and get the site and system up and running securely. The postponement was great in terms of creating confidence in the Electroneum team, but it was also one of those “do they really know what they are doing moments.”
Once the audit was complete, they proceeded to the launch. And it wasn’t the prettiest either. The site had so much traffic that it took hours for you to access your wallet and even longer to transfer the Electroneum to Cryptopia for trading. And then people didn’t read the directions sent out by the CEO and quite a few lost their coins by not including a transaction ID during the transfer process. Needless to say, some were (and might still be) royally upset.
Since the launch, the trading volume has remained high and there have been some major swings in the pricing.
We are going to take a look at where Electroneum sits currently and my strategy for the short term. As for the long term, I have 5,000 ETN sitting back on an offline wallet playing the long shot.
We have two charts showing Electroneum from launch and over the last month.
If you look at the last month, you will see two major spikes in volume (the gray bars at the bottom) around 12/22 and 12/14. They also coincide with major drops or increases in the price. This also means you have a lot of people sitting there with coins they expect to go higher (this is based upon the idea that everyone acts in the own self-interested as postulated by Adam Smith). This creates a level of resistance where people are going to sell off to “break even” after a bad trade. The two lowest points on the chart occur on 12/14 and 11/27 running just above 0.0000025 BTC.
With this information (and a little analysis from the candlestick charts), I would say the play is a follows:
Buy: ETN at .00000575 up until .00000610.
Sell: ETN at .0000071 (once it bounces off the .0000075 ceiling – If it doesn’t bounce, I would hold and sell at .0000080 and keep a small percentage back).
That strategy could net quick gains and has mitigated a little bit of the risk. The major caveat would be you need to to stick to the plan and not get greedy.
Another side note: As I was doing some additional research I noticed there a few “experts” who are speculating that Electroneum will hit the $40 mark. I don’t think this is something that is possible in the short term, but you might want to set aside some of your earnings and play this as a long term option.
Who knows. This could be the next big thing. Or a bust. Only time will tell.
Chris Wilkey (CW)